Justin86 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 All I know about this election is if Hillary wins I'll never forgive Ann Coulter for helping that happen. Ann is voting for Hillary everyone. The world really is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenchild17 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 McCain, may (and I place a lot of emphasis on "may") be the least of two evils should he get the GOP nomination. But if he wins I'm not really sure how much of a practical difference there would be between him and the Dem candidate. It may be considered throwing away my vote, but if Paul gets picked up as the Libertarian 3rd party candidate I would have to strongly consider voting that ways. The more people continue to support a left-leaning GOP the more left the GOP will lean in order to become more appealing to the left. A message needs to be sent to them that they can't win simply because they are less "left" than the democrats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aloysius Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Looks to me like this will be a brokered convention, and absolutely anything can happen at a brokered convention, including people that are way behind being skyrocketed into the lead. that is where the term "dark horse" came from, I believe. note: Huckabee has said unequivocally that he won't drop out. Romney shows no signs of dropping out. Paul has said he won't drop out. McCain obviously won't drop out. And with results like super tuesday's, that means the convention will not pick its candidate on the first ballot. just to bring the Ron Paul POV to this thread, Paul didn't win any states on super tuesday, but his campaign strategy has been to focus on post-super-tuesday states where it looks like the other campaigns are losing steam monetarily, he will be able to kick it up a notch. he just recently received some delegates from Huckabee in WV, and he may even be able to pick up a lot more of Huckabee's delegates. Today still not yet half of the states have held their primaries. But the ones that did have thrown it all across the map enough that this year's RNC will not be a crowning of a predetermined winner, but a brokered convention where the delegates really will decide. I don't understand how you can call the nomination for McCain when not even HALF of the states have held their primaries yet, and even there the delegates have gone across the board. This is going to be a race for delegates through the rest of the states, and the Convention will probably not produce 50%+ to any one of the candidates, meaning: brokered convention. The first ballot will likely not decide the Republican Nomination, and on the second and subsequent ballots, delegates are free to vote for whoever they want. The race for the Republican Nomination is FAR from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenchild17 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 I agree its not over yet, but doesn't the GOP nominee need like 1,000 some delegates? If McCain already has like 500+ then I'm not sure I see the math working out unless Paul wins like 90% from here on out. Might be getting the numbers wrong, but you get my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aloysius Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 If no candidate gets 1,191 delegates, then the first ballot of the convention does not decide the winner. In the second and subsequent ballots, delegates are free to vote for who they like, it's called a brokered convention and it hasn't happened for a very long time. Theoretically, at that point they could vote for someone who wasn't even running. The current delegate count: McCain 557 Romney 209 Huckabee 169 Paul 17 I see Romney making a comeback. There are 1008 delegates now up for grabs, McCain needs to win 634 of those to become the nominee. So if Romney, Huckabee, and Paul get a [b]combined[/b] total of only 374 delegates in the upcoming primaries, then the first ballot will not decide the winner. At the Convention, the delegates will have the choice. With the way the economy's going, sadly I expect there to be a big economic crisis by the time of the convention. That works in Paul's favor, IMO, because it might wake the delegates up to the fact that we need some sound economic policies being offered by the GOP and they might swing to him. Who knows. In any event, I find it very likely that this scenario will happen and at least keep McCain from getting the nomination. (note: the delegate count I posted was edited from RealClearPolitics to include the 3 delegates that Paul just received from Huckabee, it does not include the delegates Paul is expected to get on May 2 in Maine, because it gives all 18 wrongly to Mitt Romney, but he is poised to receive about 1/3 of the delegates there from the state convention, so my numbers might not be accurate as Paul has more delegates than that, but the point remains the same about McCain's chances of receiving the nomination on the first ballot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenchild17 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 I didn't think about a brokered convention. good catch. nonetheless if Paul only has 17 delegates at this point what hope is there that there would be enough of a vote for him at the convention? I think like you said, it might be enough for McCain to not get the nomination, which is huge imo, but I don't see enough happening for Paul to move up to get it. Unless he has a crazy big run in the coming months which wakes people up to him. Which is possible, but it hasn't happened yet and I guess I'm just not getting the warm fuzzies that it's likely to happen. If he has the financial backing to do it moreso than the others than maybe. We'll just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aloysius Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 He's already swung some of Huckabee's delegates from West Virginia, he actually has delegates from Maine which are given in the above numbers to Romney, and in the end all he has to do is be at the convention, because when the first ballot doesn't pick the nominee, all bets are off. that's where the term dark horse comes from, it sometimes skyrockets someone who's very far behind. he only has to wake the delegates up to his message there. I think there will be a lot of ballots cast before the one that actually picks the nominee. And in the end I expect that to be either Romney or, something which is not unprecedented in a brokered convention, Paul. If the economy is in really bad shape, the delegates might just swing their vote to Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aloysius Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 This is a more accurate count for now, it is still not necessarily decided or fully accurate, it doesn't yet include Paul's Louisiana delegates: McCain 557 Romney 203 Huckabee 169 Paul 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin86 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 [quote name='Aloysius' post='1456284' date='Feb 6 2008, 10:19 PM']This is a more accurate count for now, it is still not necessarily decided or fully accurate, it doesn't yet include Paul's Louisiana delegates: McCain 557 Romney 203 Huckabee 169 Paul 23[/quote] Can I get your source for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissyP89 Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 Pro-life center voter who is still annoyed that SHE won New Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenrockthefirst Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 As a pro-life, anti-war in Iraq, anti-excesses of the "war on terror," I look forward to voting for Ron Paul as either the Republican or a third party candidate. Accordingly, I voted "I shall look to a third party." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaime Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 you know the one thing that absolutely impressed me about yesterday was the record voter turnout. That was awesome. I may disagree with half of them, but I love the fact that they showed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thy Geekdom Come Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 [quote name='hot stuff' post='1456115' date='Feb 5 2008, 11:06 PM']I feel that Kiran Chetry is looking really good and there should be more reporting by her tonight[/quote] Katie Couric is going to be SO jealous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aloysius Posted February 6, 2008 Share Posted February 6, 2008 [quote name='Justin86' post='1456300' date='Feb 6 2008, 08:42 AM']Can I get your source for that?[/quote] it's been updated since I posted, McCain has about 50 more than it had said before: [url="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html"]Real Clear Politics[/url] McCain 604 Romney 244 Huckabee 187 Paul 14 [url="http://ronpaul2008.typepad.com/ron_paul_2008/2008/02/ron-paul-secure.html"]Ron Paul Secures 3 Delegates from Huckabee in West Virginia[/url] McCain 604 Romney 244 Huckabee 184 Paul 17 [url="http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=251611"]Ron Paul: 1/3 of Maine's Delegates[/url] McCain 604 Romney 238 Huckabee 184 Paul 23 Adding up the rest of the possible delegates from the rest of the states, found on realclearpolitics, you can see 1008 delegates are still up for grams. 1191 delegates are needed to win the convention. The math is pretty simple: McCain needs 587 more delegates to win. If his opponents receive more than 421 more delegates between them, McCain does not win the first ballot and there will be a brokered convention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lounge Daddy Posted February 6, 2008 Author Share Posted February 6, 2008 [quote name='hot stuff' post='1456320' date='Feb 6 2008, 10:40 AM']you know the one thing that absolutely impressed me about yesterday was the record voter turnout. That was awesome. I may disagree with half of them, but I love the fact that they showed up[/quote] Oh ya. Despite the weather, I showed up several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now