Us Military Report Warns Of ’sudden Collapse’ Of Mexico

[Lounge Daddy]

[url="http://loungedaddy.us/?p=1519"]Planning the next war[/url]?

[indent] Mexico is one of two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse.

…

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”[/indent]

[CatherineM]

I read a story that many small towns in Mexico are preparing for the return of their young men, almost like the US did after WWII. For so long the towns were just women, kids and old men, and now that the jobs in the US are drying up, the men are returning home, whether they were legal or not in the US. A whole bunch of unemployed men, all at once, where the only money is in the drug trade, is not a recipe for social stability.

[Lounge Daddy]

[quote name='CatherineM' post='1754824' date='Jan 18 2009, 11:24 PM']I read a story that many small towns in Mexico are preparing for the return of their young men, almost like the US did after WWII. For so long the towns were just women, kids and old men, and now that the jobs in the US are drying up, the men are returning home, whether they were legal or not in the US. A whole bunch of unemployed men, all at once, where the only money is in the drug trade, is not a recipe for social stability.[/quote]
I was thinking the same thing. If Mexico was pretty much depending on the US economy for income before, fear over a US economic collapse is going to trigger a lot of people trying to get back to Mexico to compete for whatever job might remain there -- if any. And on top of that, the already unstable Mexican system might lose what they were relying on: the US economy.

Not a recipe for social stability. Absolutely.

[CatherineM]

People who have never traveled outside of tourist areas in Mexico don't understand how their infrastructure is managed. People send money home to their families, not only to put a new roof on their mom's house, but to run the phone or electric lines to it. In the US, you build a house, and it is hooked up to water, sewer, electric, phone, etc. In Mexico the homeowners pay to tie into lines at the nearest place. If you've ever paid to replace your sewer line, an ordinary thing in places with elm trees, you know how expensive that 20-30 feet out to the main can be. Think if you had to pay to run the line to the nearest substation. People sending money home from the US finance more than half of the local small church's yearly operating budget (a fraction of what a similar church in the US would spend in a year).

Multiply that across the entire social structure. Police, hospitals, electric companies, are all going to go Mad Max. I could foresee a time where tourist areas are fenced, and tourists fly in and out of places like Cancun, but the rest of the country will be closed to outsiders as too dangerous. They are already throwing decapitated heads at hotels in Acapulco.

[sweens8403]

[quote name='Lounge Daddy' post='1754819' date='Jan 18 2009, 11:14 PM']“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”[/indent][/quote]

Justified or not/asked for or not I can already hear the hippies protesting any US intervention

[Saint Therese]

I don't see why we should intervene in any Mexican crisis.

[CatherineM]

I don't think we should intervene either, but I think that we are going to have some serious border issues.

[scardella]

We already do have serious border issues...

[abercius24]

[quote name='Saint Therese' post='1754940' date='Jan 19 2009, 12:06 AM']I don't see why we should intervene in any Mexican crisis.[/quote]

The same reason we invaded Guantanamo and held the Russians at bay during the Cuban Missile Crisis. We don't want unfriendlies too close to our borders. It's one of the reasons we've never had a modern battle fought on our own soil. We keep the fight elsewhere.

[sweens8403]

[quote name='abercius24' post='1758184' date='Jan 21 2009, 11:01 PM']The same reason we invaded Guantanamo and held the Russians at bay during the Cuban Missile Crisis. We don't want unfriendlies too close to our borders. It's one of the reasons we've never had a modern battle fought on our own soil. We keep the fight elsewhere.[/quote]

Except of course for the Civil War.

This is most certainly a good thing that most Americans have no direct experience with war, it also however takes away a bit of perspective. Many Americans believe that other governments operate the same way we do in that we will solve many problems without violence. Other governments are simply not interested in communication; they only seek domination, money, and power. They ignore established rules of war like those from the Geneva Convention. Given your choice, where would you rather be a prisoner of war? China? North Korea? One of the warring factions of Peru? Sierre Loene - Nigeria? or America?

My point is that sometimes war is necessary, and the only way to avoid an even larger loss of life.

[sweens8403]

ah, my mistake. you said MODERN war.

[BG45]

[quote name='CatherineM' post='1754884' date='Jan 19 2009, 12:25 AM']They are already throwing decapitated heads at hotels in Acapulco.[/quote]

Reminding me of an article I read [url="http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/01/20/New_police_chiefs_head_left_at_station/UPI-47911232502839/"]recently.[/url]

[quote]CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexico, Jan. 20 (UPI) -- The head of a new local police commander was left in an ice bucket at his police station in the Ciudad Juarez area, Mexican authorities said Tuesday.

The city, which lies just across the border from El Paso, Texas, in the state of Chihuahua, has one of the highest homicide rates in Mexico. El Universal reported that Martin Castro Martinez was one of 15 people killed execution-style in 24 hours.

...

The bodies of six young men who appeared to be between the ages of 17 and 20 were found in Santa Isabel. They appeared to have been tortured.

Eight other bodies have been found in the area, El Universal said.[/quote]

Also reminds me a bit of the Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex anime. The United States suffered a civil war following economic crisis and split into two. Following a continued Depression the American Empire cited instability in Mexico and the drug lords feuding as a reason for invasion.

[rkwright]

Remember the Alamo!

[dUSt]

[quote name='Saint Therese' post='1754940' date='Jan 19 2009, 12:06 AM']I don't see why we should intervene in any Mexican crisis.[/quote]
Because we're neighbors.

[eagle_eye222001]

[quote name='dUSt' post='1758340' date='Jan 22 2009, 12:31 AM']Because we're neighbors.[/quote]

Right. Mexico is too close to just let it go. The Border Issue is big enough...we don't need to expand it to utter chaos anarchy or an unfriendly government.

----------------
Now playing: [url="http://www.foxytunes.com/artist/relient+k/track/falling+out"]Relient K - Falling Out[/url]
via [url="http://www.foxytunes.com/signatunes/"]FoxyTunes[/url]