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Partial Victory

The power of an unenforced abortion ban.

By Paul Freedman

Updated Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2003, at 9:43 AM PT

Last week, Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie traveled to New Hampshire to criticize the Democratic presidential candidates. He faulted them on taxes, spending, and "partial-birth" abortion, a procedure (more accurately known as intact dilation and extraction) that was banned last month when President Bush signed the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act into law. The ban has been blocked by the courts but remains potent for a different reason: The more it is debated in Congress, the courts, and the presidential campaign, the more it helps turn public opinion against abortion generally.

Support for a ban on the partial-birth procedure has risen sharply in the eight years since pro-life forces began using graphic descriptions and imagery to focus attention on it. According to National Election Studies data, collected regularly by the University of Michigan, ban support rose from 56 percent in 1997 to more than 70 percent in 2000. The percentage saying they "favored strongly" a ban grew even more sharply, from 46 percent to 63 percent. Gallup data tell a similar story, with support rising from 57 percent in 1996 to 66 percent in 2000 to 68 percent last month, down slightly from 70 percent in January.

Much of the growth in support for the ban comes from pro-choice Americans. In 1997, according to NES data, 39 percent of respondents who said abortion should always be legal "as a matter of personal choice" nevertheless supported a ban on partial-birth abortion, and another 12 percent said they did not know where they stood on the question of a ban. By 2000, the percentage of pro-choice respondents supporting the ban had increased to 56 percent, with only 8 percent offering a "don't know" response.

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But more significant, the ban has shrunk the pool of those taking a pro-choice stance in the first place. Two Gallup trends are instructive. First, the percentage of Americans who identify themselves as "pro-choice" has declined over the course of the partial-birth debate while the percentage calling themselves "pro-life" has increased. In September 1995, when Gallup first started asking the question, most Americans—56 percent—considered themselves pro-choice, while only a third considered themselves pro-life. The remaining 11 percent were unable or unwilling to place themselves in either camp.

As the partial-birth debate unfolded in Congress, in the courts, and in state legislatures—as Americans were confronted with the rhetoric of "infanticide" and the imagery of late-term abortion—the number of pro-life identifiers increased steadily, from 33 percent in 1995 to 36 percent in July 1996; 40 percent in the fall of 1997 up to 45 percent in early 1998, leveling off at the 41 percent-43 percent range from the spring of 1999 through the spring of 2001, and increasing to 45 percent-46 percent from the summer of 2001 through the fall of 2003. This 13-point increase was accompanied by a decrease in the percentage of Americans identifying as pro-choice, which stood at 48 percent, a slim plurality, by October 2003. The trend is clear: Over the course of the partial-birth abortion debate, citizens have shifted away from the "don't know" and "pro-choice" categories and toward a pro-life identification.

A second Gallup series illustrates the change even more clearly. Since 1975 Gallup has asked, "Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?" Throughout most of the 1980s, between a fifth and a quarter of Americans chose the "legal under any circumstances" response, growing to 29 percent in 1989 (the year of the Supreme Court's Webster decision) and increasing to 31 percent in 1990 and 34 percent in 1992. It remained in the 31 percent-33 percent range for the next three years before falling back to 25 percent in 1996, 24 percent in 1997, and 23 percent in 1998. In October 2003, only 26 percent of Americans supported legal abortion under any circumstances, up slightly from 23 percent in May.

In short, since the start of the partial-birth debate, Americans have grown more likely to see themselves as pro-life, less likely to consider themselves pro-choice, and less likely to support abortion unconditionally.

How can we be certain that this is more than coincidence? By looking at experimental data. In a survey conducted in Michigan in the mid-1990s, a randomly selected half of the sample was first asked questions about partial-birth abortion, followed (much later in the survey) by a more general question about abortion's legality. The other half heard the questions in the opposite order. If the partial-birth issue reframes the broader debate over abortion, shifting public opinion in a pro-life direction, responses to the general legality question should be more pro-life when it follows the partial-birth question. This is precisely what the results showed among respondents who were ambivalent about abortion in general. For those who took a strong pro-life or pro-choice position, the experimental manipulation made no difference. But for those who were conflicted or uncertain, simply encountering questions about partial-birth abortion made a pro-life stance on abortion's legality more likely.

Public opinion researchers call this a "priming effect." By bringing to mind a certain set of considerations—late-term abortion, graphic imagery, the language of "birth"—the partial-birth debate makes people who are ambivalent about abortion more likely to stake out a pro-life position. That is why the debate itself has helped the pro-life side and why it matters enormously what Bush, Gillespie, and the Democrats say or don't say about the partial-birth procedure, even if the law banning it is never enforced.

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The more it is debated in Congress, the courts, and the presidential campaign, the more it helps turn public opinion against abortion generally.

As Priests for Life says:

America Will not Reject Abortion until it has seen abortion. :sadder:

Thanks Cmom for the article!!!

:cyclops:

Eye like it.

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great article, I would add one thing though. There has been an increase lately in good, solid, pro-life families who are not afraid to procreate. When they are having five, six, seven, or more kids, it is simple math that eventually those people will outnumber the people from the pro-death family having their zero, one, or two kids. Not that families that have one or two kids are bad, I only have one sibling, but it's because my mother got very sick and her doctors told her if she ever became pregnant again, it might kill her and probably her baby, so that is the cross our Lord has asked my parents to bear. So, please don't read anything into what I'm posting here. Anyway, eventually, that generation is going to be voting and almost always taking their parents views on issues because usually the parents of these families take seriously their responsibility of parenting.

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The courts have blocked the partial-birth abortion ban! It is not good enough to change the hearts of the people if babies are still dying! The law needs to be enforced, not just used for discussion.

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Score one for the home team! I love to see statistics reflecting America opening her eyes to recognize God's most precious gift--LIFE!

Mr. Frozen and I are getting fired up to attend the Rally for Life in Raleigh, NC this January. I have been to the one in Washington, D.C. and it was amesome!!

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The courts have blocked the partial-birth abortion ban!  It is not good enough to change the hearts of the people if babies are still dying!  The law needs to be enforced, not just used for discussion.

The ban that was blocked by the courts was in the case of Stenberg v. Carhart in 2000. The federal ban addresses what the court had a problem with in the Nebraska ban.

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Ash Wednesday

It's no wonder the tide is turning. Never underestimate the power of God, and the power of the rosary. Man, aside from the obvious fact that it destroys a human life -- how can people not oppose abortion? It's disgusting! People of just about every religion, or non-religion would have to agree with just how absolutely disgusting of a procedure it is, regardless of how far along the pregnancy is. It destroys the baby, it destroys the mother AND the father... people forget that many fathers become upset when the mother has an abortion ... nobody wins! People are realizing... what's not to hate about it?

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Imagine how many millions of rosaries ahve been offered to undo the horrible act we humans did by legalizing abortion in this country. God is allowing all of us, through our rosaries and other prayers, to be a part of the Reckoning for this evil. Imagine, just imagine, if your rosary is the one that puts Grace over the top!

God's will is always done, and he is good enough to let us be a part of this. Our prayers are an offering to God to atone for the sins we have committed here on earth. Imagine if your Rosary is the one that is the "last straw" that finally turns God's hand to end this tragedy in our land?

Woah!

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amesome avatar pic Petrus.

My Catholic HS had a Right to Life Requirement my junior yr where Right to Life came to each individual religion class and played for us a step-by-step movie of a forcept late term abortion proceedure and we also had to view about 20 giant pics of aborted babies and babyparts in trash cans. One guy threw up and until this day I have never seen anything worse or more horrible other than the concentration camp liberation video. Before seeing that I really didn't have any opinion about abortion other than that it was something bad. Contact your bishops to see about having something like that in all Catholic high schools. It will really change minds.

Great post.

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Don John of Austria

This is good news but I wouldn't want to say we're winning until we get the abortion rate down say under a million a year, 4400 a day is a massive death toll to concider us " winning".

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I don't mean to be cynical.

How are we winning the war? Every year the total number of abortions is the same, the partial-birth abortion ban itself, which took 8 years to finally get passed, doesn't save a single baby from being killed. Someone asked a friend of mine what partial-birth abortion is and he responded, "Imagine the worst thing possible, then make it legal." Why did it take 8 years for America to get rid of partial birth abortion, and who is going to keep the doctors from performing it? Infanticide is illegal too, but it happens. So, when we get all of these laws into place, what's it going to take to enforce them? Will pro-lifers have to bust into doctors offices with video cameras and turn them in? I'm not new to the pro-life war, I've been a counselor for 4 years, and I walked on Crossroads this summer, but people keep saying we're winning. What is that based on? Polls? Surveys? Laws that aren't enforced and "sanctity of life" days that just boost opinion polls of politicians? If we're winning, then why are there still 1 million+ abortions every year?

beaten down and frustrated

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littleflower+JMJ

in a country that is abortion thriving (ironic i know) we cannot expect something like a night and day change.

but rather a small change and difference, that might or is about to take place.

if we can start America to realize what abortion is, and even start thinking about banning aboriton hey thats progress!! because America doesn't want to realize its wrong.

and we're winning, everytime we figth and defend the unborn,

and everytime we pray for the end to abortion.

i don't know but when i stand vigil outside the abortion clinic and make one lady see shes doing wrong and she doesn't have her abortion after all, i count that as a win. a progress, a step forward. whether its a million or one, its same, a baby saved is winning.

right now America is slowly waking up to the evil of abortions. somethign that we can win. thru prayer, fasting and hope. lots of hope, love and charity. and we must continue untill we defeat this evil of abortion.

O VIRGEN DE GUADALUPE, patroness of the Unborn, PRAY FOR US AND FOR THE END TO ABORTION!!

+JMJ

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amesome avatar pic Petrus.

My Catholic HS had a Right to Life Requirement my junior yr where Right to Life came to each individual religion class and played for us a step-by-step movie of a forcept late term abortion proceedure and we also had to view about 20 giant pics of aborted babies and babyparts in trash cans. One guy threw up and until this day I have never seen anything worse or more horrible other than the concentration camp liberation video. Before seeing that I really didn't have any opinion about abortion other than that it was something bad. Contact your bishops to see about having something like that in all Catholic high schools. It will really change minds.

Great post.

Same here - I didn't feel strongly against abortion until after viewing the pictures.

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