PEAK OIL

[StColette]

:thinking:

[Laudate_Dominum]

[quote name='Socrates' date='Jul 21 2005, 02:34 PM']From what I know of them, the Peak Oil people agressively push population control measures.  Rather than urge developing new technology, etc., they see increased abortion and contraception as the only "solution."
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Those people are [fill in the blank]!!!!
That makes me sick. :ill: :mouse: :coagulated milk: :fingercross: :bicycle:

[Didacus]

[quote name='Socrates' date='Jul 21 2005, 02:34 PM']From what I know of them, the Peak Oil people agressively push population control measures.  Rather than urge developing new technology, etc., they see increased abortion and contraception as the only "solution."
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Well, if you look at it from that point of view I am definately not 'buying into it'.

But imagine for a moment if oil was removed from the world right now, what od you think it would look like?

[BullnaChinaShop]

As the price of oil goes up the cost effectiveness and incentive to develop new sources of energy will increase. Thankfully oil will not disappear overnite leaving no time to develope new sources of energy.

[Didacus]

[quote name='BullnaChinaShop' date='Jul 21 2005, 03:06 PM']As the price of oil goes up the cost effectiveness and incentive to develop new sources of energy will increase.  Thankfully oil will not disappear overnite leaving no time to develope new sources of energy.
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As the pirce of oil increases, people will not be able to afford to purchase as much of it as before thus consuption will drop as weill. But what options is there to oil?

Naturagl Gas: A bit more abundant than oil, but also running out

Coal: Canbe liquified like oil, but a bad polluter and very expensive, and will also run out eventually

Solar/wind: Impossible to generate enough power with solar to meet even 10% of energy demands.

Nuclear: Extremely difficult ot manage and initial investment is very cumbersome. It takes as much as 10-15 years to get a single plant to produce as it should. Also, uranium deposties are also very limited.

Nuclear fusion: This option would provide near endless energy, but in the most optimistic world is at least 50 years from any positive production.


What energy could possibly replace oil? None really. Other sources of eneregy can only mittigate the eventual and inevitable loss of oil to the energy basket, leaving a gapping and painful hole in our lifestyle and even a genuine threat to the future of our next generation.

[CadorBolin]

[quote name='Socrates' date='Jul 21 2005, 02:34 PM']From what I know of them, the Peak Oil people agressively push population control measures.  Rather than urge developing new technology, etc., they see increased abortion and contraception as the only "solution."
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No disagreement with you in regards to the ideology of some of the peak oil people in regards to contraception, abortion and population control, but the coming energy crisis has no ideology per se, only if one decides to inject his personal philosophy into it.

For a thousand years during the Middle Ages (you know, what the secularists refer to as the bad old days), the world's population remained more or less stable at around 500 million. It remained that stable because most of the food production was done by hand and tool farming.

Fast forward to the present day and the world's population has skyrocketed to 6 1/2 BILLION thanks to the internal combustion engine, coal, oil and fertilizer.

Imagine how much the car, the supermarket and several other luxuries have improved the quality of our lives. Last month, I had to borrow the neighbor's mechanical push mower to cut my lawn. It took me an hour and a half compared to the 30 minutes it takes me with an electric one.

The current quality of life that we enjoy at the present is thanks to access to cheap energy and to the stable infrastructure that society provides for it.

The fact that we can go to the supermarket and buy our food without having to grow or hunt it is a marvelous achievement in itself. Is it any wonder why our modern society has regressed to secular humanism? We no longer have to pray to the corn god perform rain dances to stave off famines.

THE EVIDENCE OF A COMING ENERGY CRISIS is quite obvious: overpopulation (I know that leftists have hijacked this term in order to advance their own secular humanist/communist agendas but more on this later). We would NOT BE HAVING AN ENERGY CRISIS if the world's population were ONE TENTH of what it is right now.

In the 1950s, the "man of the house" could get a 40-hour a week job and his wife could stay at home while she reared 4-6 children. GLOBAL oil production per capita peaked in 1979. Since then, why do middle class homes today require two incomes to sustain the same lifestyle that existed in the 50s?

So, we have more humans to compete for the shrinking energy pie. In 1998, during the peak of the dot-com boom, oil was priced at $11 a barrel. Now, it's at $60 and this will surely go up in the next few years. In 2003, the oil industry spent $20 billion in exploration and found $7 billion in new reserves. There will come a point where overall production will go down and the new oil projects will fail to replace the aging oil fields.

This means an economic collapse not unlike the Great Depression.

I fear that this new batch of modern humans will degenerate into race riots and global thermonuclear war rather than remain law-abiding like the "greatest generation". The difference? European man in the 1930s was God-fearing and believed that he would go to Hell if he did really bad things. Today's man does not believe in God (thank you ACLU, bolsheviks) and will revert to the primal urges of his advanced killer ape ancestors: infanticide, rape and murder.

I am very pessimistic because I understand the complexity of our society. Whereas the Roman Empire was 90% self-subsisting farmers who did not feel the effects of their collapsed society, we now are 95% city slickers who think that the shopping mall is the be-all and end-all to everything in life. People fail to realize that the production, packaging and delivery of our food has several weak links. Any stoppage that stops food distribution for 3 days will cause social chaos.

My prognosis is that 75% of the world's population will die off by 2020 because of war, disease and malnutrition. And I think that's the optimisic scenario.

[Sirklawd]

there is plenty of effort out there find alternative sources of energy. what about the car that runs on water - last time i checked we were close - if not successful in this. one of the big problems is that oil companies themselves need to start looking at alternative products to sell. as Gerrold said in a blog "...they need to become power companies, not oil companies"

i have enough faith in humanity to believe that somewhere there is a person who has a solution/alternative method either in developement or developed. heck, its no secret that techonology like that can make you super rich. go humans go! chase that dollar and solve our energy problems!

[CadorBolin]

[quote name='Sirklawd' date='Jul 21 2005, 03:31 PM']there is plenty of effort out there find alternative sources of energy. what about the car that runs on water - last time i checked we were close - if not successful in this. one of the big problems is that oil companies themselves need to start looking at alternative products to sell.      as Gerrold said in a blog "...they need to become power companies, not oil companies"[/quote]

Believe you, me, if there was a car that could run on the ether, there would be millions of them right now in our cities. I'm afraid that the Jetsons future we've imagined for ourselves was just a pipe dream

[quote]i have enough faith in humanity to believe that somewhere there is a person who has a solution/alternative method either in developement or developed. heck, its no secret that techonology like that can make you super rich. go humans go! chase that dollar and solve our energy problems!
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I have very little faith in my fellow humans. Let God be true and every man a liar.

Besides, you need energy to create technology--it doesn't work the other way around.

Without energy (human, carbon, or otherwise), money is pretty much useless.

[Didacus]

[quote name='Sirklawd' date='Jul 21 2005, 03:31 PM']there is plenty of effort out there find alternative sources of energy. what about the car that runs on water - last time i checked we were close - if not successful in this. one of the big problems is that oil companies themselves need to start looking at alternative products to sell.      as Gerrold said in a blog "...they need to become power companies, not oil companies"

i have enough faith in humanity to believe that somewhere there is a person who has a solution/alternative method either in developement or developed. heck, its no secret that techonology like that can make you super rich. go humans go! chase that dollar and solve our energy problems!
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You are refering no doubt to the infamous 'hydrogen economy'. This 'water based car' you refer to utilise a new energy CARRIER, no energy SOURCE and it does not address in ANY way the problem of running out of oil.

[BullnaChinaShop]

[quote name='Didacus' date='Jul 21 2005, 03:26 PM']As the pirce of oil increases, people will not be able to afford to purchase as much of it as before thus consuption will drop as weill.  But what options is there to oil?

Naturagl Gas:  A bit more abundant than oil, but also running out

Coal: Canbe liquified like oil, but a bad polluter and very expensive, and will also run out eventually

Solar/wind: Impossible to generate enough power with solar to meet even 10% of energy demands.

Nuclear: Extremely difficult ot manage and initial investment is very cumbersome.  It takes as much as 10-15 years to get a single plant to produce as it should.  Also, uranium deposties are also very limited.

Nuclear fusion:  This option would provide near endless energy, but in the most optimistic world is at least 50 years from any positive production.
What energy could possibly replace oil?  None really.  Other sources of eneregy can only mittigate the eventual and inevitable loss of oil to the energy basket, leaving a gapping and painful hole in our lifestyle and even a genuine threat to the future of our next generation.
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But as the price of oil goes up the amount of money put into innovate research will go up as there will be more incentive to replace oil. The problem right now is that even with increased costs oil is so cheap that there is little incentive to find alternative sources of power.

[Didacus]

[quote name='BullnaChinaShop' date='Jul 21 2005, 03:46 PM']But as the price of oil goes up the amount of money put into innovate research will go up as there will be more incentive to replace oil.  The problem right now is that even with increased costs oil is so cheap that there is little incentive to find alternative sources of power.
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Groups such as greenpeace adn get rich schemers have been looking for viable energy sources to compete with oil and other elements of the current (and past) energy basket for over 50 years. The best they come up with is nuclear fusion and that is still at the very best over 50 years away.

I challenge you to find aSINGLe energy source that can be imlimented within the 50 years that can replace the current world consumption of oil. Just ONE! Even if this 'source' is just in experimental and theoretical stages... name me just one... just one...You may this much much more difficult than you imagine.

[Sirklawd]

boo. i didnt know. and i really wanted a water car. :-( what about hybrid cars?

[CadorBolin]

[quote name='BullnaChinaShop' date='Jul 21 2005, 03:46 PM']But as the price of oil goes up the amount of money put into innovate research will go up as there will be more incentive to replace oil.  The problem right now is that even with increased costs oil is so cheap that there is little incentive to find alternative sources of power.
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As the price of oil goes up, so does the price of everything else. Case in point:

[i]The cost of drilling in Colorado has nearly doubled since last year, EnCana officials said. Rates increased from $8,500 per day to $14,000 per day in one year.[/i] source: [url="http://boards.conservativelife.com/viewtopic.php?t=42247"]http://boards.conservativelife.com/viewtopic.php?t=42247[/url]

So, the unprofitable oil fields when prices are low might not actually be that much profitable when the price of oil goes up.

And that goes for the cost of researching new technology as well.

[Didacus]

[quote name='Sirklawd' date='Jul 21 2005, 03:52 PM']boo. i didnt know. and i really wanted a water car. :-(  what about hybrid cars?
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Same thing, except the energy carrier in that case is electricty rather than hydrogen, and combines it with oil.

Edited July 21, 2005 by Didacus

[Didacus]

Cador,

Although I do agree with some of the things you mention I see your outlook as bing most pessimistic. However, although I cannot argue that oil running out will be an event of biblical proportion I can argue that it will not be a brick wall hitting us overnight.

Alternatives do exist, though none satisfactory, such that I belive humanity will be able to sustain itself for a good many years. Just that we will eventually be forced - the majority of us (95%+) to return to the horse and wagon and becoming farmers in order to grow food locally. Our lifestyles will gradually return to that lifestyle of the early 19th century until a miracle of srots replaces the energy source provided to us from oil.

I do not partake too much into 'die-off' theories for the exception of considerations towards world war of sorts. If such be the case, then oil would only be an element of societie's fall and not the main instigator or crutch of survival.

[philothea]

[quote name='Didacus' date='Jul 21 2005, 04:13 PM']Cador,

Although I do agree with some of the things you mention I see your outlook as bing most pessimistic.  However, although I cannot argue that oil running out will be an event of biblical proportion I can argue that it will not be a brick wall hitting us overnight.

Alternatives do exist, though none satisfactory, such that I belive humanity will be able to sustain itself for a good many years.  Just that we will eventually be forced - the majority of us (95%+) to return to the horse and wagon and becoming farmers in order to grow food locally.  Our lifestyles will gradually return to that lifestyle of the early 19th century until a miracle of srots replaces the energy source provided to us from oil.

I do not partake too much into 'die-off' theories for the exception of considerations towards world war of sorts.  If such be the case, then oil would only be an element of societie's fall and not the main instigator or crutch of survival.
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What irritates me is how all the technology we have is predicated on essentially free energy. Crude oil just squirts out of the ground in some areas, so no attention was much paid to efficiency.

When the oil runs out, there are going to be some hard times, but it doesn't [i]have[/i] to be so bad. If people would conserve now, the supply would last longer, and it'd be a lot easier to convert to renewable/lower energy sources.

[Old_Joe]

We could just rely on steam powered cars and such.

[argent_paladin]

First the false premise: We have enough oil for (10, 30, 50) years. Imagine what would happen if there were no oil. Therefore, in (10, 30, 50) years, that will happen.
This is false because, in fact, we will never run out of oil. What will happen is that oil will become more and more expensive. When oil is $100 a barrel, people will still drive cars, go to work, etc but they will look for ways to increase efficiency and find new sources of energy. When oil reaches $200 a barrel, alternative energies, such as solar, wind, etc will look far more appealing, even barring advancements, which will likely occur. Even at $200/barrel, gasoline prices will likely be about $5/gallon, about what it is in Europe. Yes, that will necessitate some changes, but these will happen gradually. The major fallacy is that oil will simply disappear unexpectedly one day. We will have decades of notice, in the form of rising oil prices. Again, we have the technology to pump billions of barrels out of old oil fields but it is just not profitable at $50/barrel.

In fact, I argue that the oil problem is that it is potentially to cheap, rather than too expensive. The reason is that oil companies are not willing to invest the billions of dollars necessary to find new fields and new technology because OPEC could make these investments unprofitable. Imagine Chevron investing in a new field that would be profitable at $60/barrel in 30 years (yes, they have to think in those long terms). But if OPEC increases production, prices dip and Chevron's investment is wiped out. Oil prices are actually artificially high and there is instability in the markets because of this.

And the problem in the world is not overpopulation, but underpopulation. Every prediction of famine and war has been totally and spectacularly wrong. Resources are cheaper than ever, even oil (as a percentage of GDP). We have more food and fewer people suffering malnutrition. In the majority of countries, population rates are at or below replacement (2.1 per couple). Europe needs to import 1 million workers a year to maintain its current economy.

This scaremongering has literally gone on since the early 1970s, that is, before most on phatmass were even born. It is ridiculous to say that in 13 years, half the world's population will be dead of disease and starvation. The population doubled from 1960 to today and still we are wealthier and healthier since then. From now until 2050, the population will only increase by 60% and will peak in that year. Then it will decline. It is ludicrous to think that we had enough resources for a doubling population every 30 years, but not one for a stable or declining one.

$50/barrel seems high, but with inflation and with the increase in GDP it is nowhere near record levels. During the gas crisis in the late 1970s, Americans were shelling out far more for gas as a percentage of their salary than today. Gas would have to be something like $15/gallon to equal the percentage of average income.

[Didacus]

[quote name='argent_paladin' date='Jul 22 2005, 05:59 AM']First the false premise: We have enough oil for (10, 30, 50) years. Imagine what would happen if there were no oil. Therefore, in (10, 30, 50) years, that will happen.
This is false because, in fact, we will never run out of oil. What will happen is that oil will become more and more expensive. When oil is $100 a barrel, people will still drive cars, go to work, etc but they will look for ways to increase efficiency and find new sources of energy. [/quote]

Indeed you are correct - we will NEVER run out of oil. An oil well is never fully emptied, because at one point it costs too much energy to obtain the oil from the ground than it the oil contains - regardless of the price of oil, oil wells are never good to the last drop.

[quote name='argent_paladin' date='Jul 22 2005, 05:59 AM']When oil reaches $200 a barrel, alternative energies, such as solar, wind, etc will look far more appealing, even barring advancements, which will likely occur. Even at $200/barrel, gasoline prices will likely be about $5/gallon, about what it is in Europe. Yes, that will necessitate some changes, but these will happen gradually. [/quote]


soalr/wind cannot do much good...if any good at all. It is just too little of a source to replace any significant quantity of energy provided by oil. The fact is no energy within the conception of human imagination could posibly replace oil (except perhaps nuclear fusion which remains much in theorietical stages at the moment).


[quote name='argent_paladin' date='Jul 22 2005, 05:59 AM']
The major fallacy is that oil will simply disappear unexpectedly one day. We will have decades of notice, in the form of rising oil prices. Again, we have the technology to pump billions of barrels out of old oil fields but it is just not profitable at $50/barrel. [/quote]

You are correct that the 'after peak' will be a gradual cutting off of the world oil supply, and that this will not be a sudden price spike.

However, are you familiar with the oil crisis of the late 70s? And that weverytime the oil prices surged to unexpected levels, the world plunged into a recession.

Oil prices are hovering around 60$ per barrel right now, what is the price of gasoline in part of the world? Has it made a hole in your budget yet? Oil prices may very well reach 80$ per barrel before the end of the year... how much will gasoline cost then?

Edited July 22, 2005 by Didacus

[Didacus]

[quote name='argent_paladin' date='Jul 22 2005, 05:59 AM']
And the problem in the world is not overpopulation, but underpopulation. Every prediction of famine and war has been totally and spectacularly wrong.    [snip]    as a percentage of their salary than today. Gas would have to be something like $15/gallon to equal the percentage of average income.
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I do not buy into those doomsdayers and the likes who claim death within a generation. However, the consequences of the 'peak oil' theory are sound and real.

The overall consequence is that the world will grow poorer than it was before, and this time around it won't be the third world, it will be the industrialized nations that will become poorer. The more industrialised you are, the further you have to fall.

No one thought the great depression would be possible, oops - we where wrong.

I you factor in inflation adn the GDP, oil at 60$ per barrel is getting extremely close to those 1970 levels when people wehre nearly killing each other in the streets! Fact is the world oil supply is just as if not even more fragile than it was in the 1970s...

The world consumes 80+ million barrels of oil per day. So fragile is the price of oil and fervant its demand, that if you removed only 1 million barrel of that availability, and supply to the world only 79 million barrels per day, then the prices would soar to 200 or 300$ per barrel. Gas would be 7-8$ per gallon at the pump.